In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, Tunisia emerged as a beacon of hope for democracy in the Middle East. It was hailed as the success story, the nation where popular protests led to the toppling of a longstanding autocrat and the birth of a fledgling democracy. However, in recent years, Tunisia has witnessed a concerning trend that raises questions about the sustainability of its democratic experiment. The recent political developments, marked by President Kais Saied’s actions, raise critical questions about the nation’s democratic trajectory. By examining Tunisia’s situation through the lens of Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt’s book “How Democracies Die” (Levitsky & Ziblatt, 2018), we can gain insight into the challenges posed by Saied’s presidency and the potential risks to Tunisia’s democratic institutions.

Tunisia has made significant democratic progress in the wake of the overthrow of dictatorial President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 2011 and the end of six decades of authoritarian rule, despite internal and external turmoil. There have been three free elections in Tunisia. Through a highly inclusive and consensual process, Tunisia adopted a new democratic constitution in 2014. Since that time, civil society organizations and other citizen initiatives have developed in a more favorable circumstance (Burwell, Hawthorne, Mezran, & Miller, 2016). The nation embarked on a path of transition characterized by consensus politics, which culminated in the adoption of a progressive constitution in 2014. These early achievements inspired hope for the consolidation of democracy.

However, even in democratic countries, the dynamics of political power can undergo sudden and drastic upheavals. At the heart of this shift is President Kais Saied, whose ascension to office represents a turning point in Tunisia’s history. The transition from a young democracy to what has been referred to as an ‘Electoral Autocracy’ can be viewed through the lens of Levitsky and Ziblatt‘s book which emphasizes that political leaders play a central role in either safeguarding or undermining democratic institutions. In the case of Tunisia, the actions of President Kais Saied have raised concerns about the erosion of democratic norms and practices.

Manipulation of Electoral Rules

The potential manipulation of electoral rules is another area of concern. President Saied announced a state of emergency on July 25, 2021, according to Article 80 of the 2014 constitution, which grants the president the authority to take any action required to lead the country (The Library of Congress, n.d.). He used that power to fire the prime minister, close the National Assembly, and suspend the constitution, undoing a decade of democratic progress (Carbonaro, n.d.). He arrested and imprisoned Tunisia’s primary opposition leader, Rached Ghannouchi, the president of the Ennahda party and former speaker of the dissolved parliament, on April 18, 2002. It is the clearest evidence of the country’s rapid fall into dictatorship under President Kais Saied (Guesmi, 2023). President Saied‘s actions have thrown into doubt the democratic integrity of upcoming elections. The decision to dissolve the parliament and suspend political parties has raised questions about the fairness and competitiveness of the electoral process.

Norm Erosion and Concentration of Power

One of the most striking signs of democratic backslide has been the erosion of democratic norms. President Saied’s decision to suspend the parliament, dismiss the prime minister, and rule by decree on September 2021 has raised concerns about the concentration of power (Carbonaro, n.d.). Such actions challenge the principles of checks and balances that underpin a healthy democracy and have generated accusations of authoritarian behavior.

Challenges to Civil Society and Institutions

Levitsky and Ziblatt highlight the importance of a robust civil society and strong institutions in safeguarding democracy. Tunisia’s democratic backslide has also been marked by challenges to these vital components:

Restrictions on Freedom of Expression: The harassment and legal restrictions imposed on civil society organizations, particularly those advocating for democratic values and accountability, have hindered their ability to serve as effective checks on power. President Saied restricted free expression by issuing two decree laws that imposed prison sentences for purposely promoting “fake news” or defamatory terms. Decree-Law 2022-14, which went into force on March 21, defines prison penalties that extend from ten years to life for everyone “engaged in economic activity” who intentionally displayed “false or incorrect news or information” about goods suppliers. Decree-Law 2022-54, a new cybercrime law that went into effect on September 13th, mandates prison terms of up to ten years for intentional misuse of telecommunications networks to produce, send, or spread “fake news”. It also threatens the right to privacy by granting authorities broad powers to observe how people use the Internet and intercept private communications (Amnesty International, 2022).

Attacks on Judicial Independence: President Kais Saied dissolved the elected High Judicial Council (HJC), a body established by the 2014 Constitution and supposed to guarantee the independence of the judiciary, and replaced it with the Temporary High Judicial Council (THJC), almost half of whose members are appointed directly by the president (Amnesty International, 2022) and granted himself powers to intervene in the appointing process in the same decree-law (Amnesty International, 2022). He continued to dismiss 57 judges on June 1, 2022, after giving himself the authority to do so under Decree Law no. 2022-35 (Amnesty International, 2023). President Kais Saied’s interference in judicial matters and the dismissal of judges have raised concerns about the independence of the judiciary. An impartial and independent judiciary is essential for upholding the rule of law and preserving democratic norms.

A Test for Tunisia’s Democracy

Tunisia’s democratic backslide represents a critical test for the nation’s young democracy. It underscores the fragility of democratic institutions and the necessity of leadership that respects democratic norms and principles.

While the outcome of Tunisia’s democratic experiment remains uncertain, the insights from Levitsky and Ziblatt‘s book provide a framework for understanding and addressing the challenges posed by President Kais Saied’s actions. The erosion of democratic norms, manipulation of electoral rules, and challenges to civil society and institutions are all red flags that must not be ignored.

The Way Forward

The experience of Tunisia serves as a critical reminder that the road to democracy is not a one-way street. Democratic progress is not guaranteed, and even nations that have made significant strides toward democracy can face setbacks. The insights from Levitsky and Ziblatt’s book offer a valuable framework for understanding and addressing democratic backsliding, highlighting the role of political leaders, norms, and institutions in safeguarding democracy.

For Tunisia to navigate away from the path to electoral autocracy, a renewed commitment to democratic values and principles is imperative. This includes fostering political inclusivity, refraining from manipulating electoral rules, and rebuilding trust in democratic institutions.

Public support for democratic norms is equally vital. Tunisians must remain engaged in defending democracy, demanding transparency, accountability, and ethical governance from their leaders.

Tunisia’s democratic backslide, as exemplified by President Kais Saied’s actions, underscores the importance of upholding democratic norms and institutions. The nation stands at a crossroads, and the path to electoral autocracy is not an inevitable fate for Tunisia. The choices made by both leaders and citizens in the coming years will determine whether the country can preserve the democratic gains it made following the Arab Spring. Only through a collective commitment to democratic values, norms, and institutions can Tunisia remain on the path to a more prosperous and democratic future.

Reference

Amnesty International, Tunisia: Dissolution of Top Judicial Body Threatens Human Rights, Amnesty International Public Statement, 25 February 2022.

Amnesty International, The State of the World’s Human Rights, Amnesty International Report 2022/23

Amnesty International, Tunisia: It is essential to end Attacks on Judicial Independence, Amnesty International Public Statement, 1 June 2023

Amnesty International, The State of the World’s Human Rights, Amnesty International Report 2022/23

Carbonaro, G. (n.d.). Why Tunisia’s political and economical crisis is Europe’s problem too. euronews

G. Burwell, F., Hawthorne, A., Mezran , K., & Miller, E. (2016). A TRANSATLANTIC STRATEGY FOR A DEMOCRATIC TUNISIA. Taking stock: Tunisia’s transition to date from a transatlantic strategy for a democratic Tunisia on JSTOR

Guesmi, H. (2023, June 28). Tunisia is on the path to becoming a failed state. Opinions | Al Jazeera

Tunisia: Arbitrary dismissals a blow to judicial independence. Amnesty International. (2022, June 11).

Tunisia: New Constitution consolidates powers in the hands of the president. The Library of Congress. (n.d.).