As we start the 2024 United States election cycle, campaign commercials, political slander, and discussions about immigration, healthcare, and taxation are all common. However, there’s another contest in the background: the health of American democracy. Many analysts and academics have started creating awareness over democratic erosion. While others argue that the U.S. is not excluded from this, is there a real threat? 

What Is Democratic Erosion?

Democratic erosion doesn’t happen overnight. It’s not a military coup or an event that destroys a regime. Instead, it’s a slow, incremental process that chips away at the institutions and principles that make democracy function. Fair elections, an independent judiciary, and a free press are vulnerable to degradation when leaders break down the checks meant to protect them.

Erosion can also involve subtle, seemingly legal maneuvers that disproportionately favor one group or party, like altering election laws or weakening checks and balances. The erosion happens under the radar and is often portrayed as “legal” or “constitutional.” In some cases, democratic erosion leads to outright authoritarianism. In others, it creates a government that’s less responsive to the people, resistant to accountability, and less tolerant of opposition.

The U.S. has long been viewed as the model of a stable democracy. However, recent years have shown flaws in this image. Events such as the January 6th Capital attack attempts to delegitimize election results, and the rise of extreme partisanship has raised concerns about the country’s democratic resilience. Many believe the 2024 election will be a crucial test. The question is whether these issues are isolated incidents or signs of a deeper, systemic problem. The answer depends on several factors: the willingness of political elites to respect democratic norms, state legislatures’ actions, and the electorate’s response.

The Role of Political Elites

One argument is that democratic erosion is driven not by voters but by political elites. Political scientists have observed that when elites prioritize short-term political gains over democratic norms, erosion accelerates. One example is the increasing number of politicians questioning the legitimacy of election results, even when there’s no legitimate evidence of fraud. In the U.S., this exploded after the 2020 election. Politicians and media figures expressed doubt on the election results, creating skepticism among voters. This was no longer a small belief; it became part of mainstream political discourse. The fear heading into the future is that these doubts will persist, weakening the foundation of democracy: trust in free and fair elections.

Voting Laws: Democracy or Manipulation?

Another critical area for erosion is the battle over voting laws. State legislatures, particularly in battleground states, have passed or are considering new voting restrictions, often under the appearance of “election security.” Supporters claim these laws are necessary to prevent fraud, while critics argue they are attempts at voter suppression, mainly aimed at minority and low-income voters who tend to support one party.

Whether these laws are considered reasonable or anti-democratic depends on how you interpret their intent and impact. However, they still risk further polarizing the population and decreasing trust in the electoral system. If one side sees their path to power increasingly blocked by legal barriers, they may use non-legal or radical methods to make their voice heard, further destabilizing the political landscape.

Media and Misinformation

The media plays an important role in shaping public opinion in the current times. Today, misinformation and disinformation spread quickly, and are often amplified by algorithms prioritizing sensationalism over accuracy. The current media landscape has created situations where individuals are less likely to encounter contrasting perspectives or unbiased information. This is another factor of democratic erosion. If citizens cannot agree on basic facts, like whether an election was conducted relatively or whether specific laws infringe on civil rights, then compromise becomes impossible. Heading into the 2024 election, misinformation will likely play a massive role in shaping public perception. How voters process and act on this information will be important. Will they accept the election results, or will they believe false claims of fraud? The answer to this question could determine whether the U.S. election process remains credible or faces further erosion.

Is This Erosion Temporary?

If political elites embrace democratic norms after the election, reject violence, accept results, and engage in constructive decisions, the erosion argument could be proven wrong. Similarly, if voting laws do not significantly impact voter turnout or fairness, then voter suppression fears may be relieved. However, if the opposite happens, if election results are contested, political violence erupts, or courts and media become further divided, the argument for democratic erosion will gain even more credibility.

As we approach the 2024 election, the United States faces a challenge. Democratic erosion is not inevitable, but it is also not implausible. The outcome of the election and the actions of political leaders, the judiciary, and the media will either slow down or accelerate the erosion. Democracy may be resilient, but it is not invincible. The future requires cautiousness, accountability, and a commitment to democratic principles. How will America face the challenge?